The Dynamics of Geopolitical Change in the Sahel Region and its Impact on the Roles of Key International Actors: the Case of the "Confederation of Sahel States".

Abstract

This paper analyzes the evolving geopolitical landscape of the African Sahel, specifically the Central Sahel, focusing on the impact of new security partnerships within the "Confederation of Sahel States" and the geopolitical void created by the withdrawal of France and its allies. It assesses the implications of these shifts for international actors and, considering the successes of existing security partnerships and internal political dynamics, projects the region's future geopolitical trajectory.

This paper concludes by confirming the depth of the geopolitical change in the Sahel region, in light of the dramatic decline of the French presence in the region politically and militarily. Indicators of growing geopolitical involvement by new actors, primarily Russia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates, as reflected by the presence of Wagner forces and the African Corps, the proliferation of Russian and Turkish military equipment, and the political and financial support that the Confederation countries receive from Russia and the UAE, place the region in an unprecedented geopolitical context. However, this context remains open to the effects of the security situation on the ground, and to the reactions of the formerly dominant powers – France and the United States – to the increasing influence of their rivals in a region of great importance to their international standing. Therefore, this paper predicts the continuation of geopolitical tensions in the Sahel region, which will, in turn, prevent the achievement of geopolitical stability in the region in the near term.