Analyse De La Corrélation Entre La Dévaluation Du Dinar Algérien Et Les échanges Commerciaux (2002-2021)

Authors

  • Zina Hamiche Higher School of Commerce
  • Kamel Boussafi Higher School of Commerce

Keywords:

la dévaluation, la courbe J, le modèle ARDL, la qualité de l'institution, Algérie

Abstract

 

Le but de ce document est l’estimation du potentiel impact de la dévaluation du dinar algérien sur la balance commerciale. L’étude examine l’existence d’une courbe J sur la période 2002-2021, à l’aide du modèle Autorégressif à Retard Distribué (ARDL). En plus des variables macro-économiques déjà prises en considération par les études antérieures sur le sujet, cette étude inclut une variable institutionnelle. Les conclusions de l’estimation démontrent qu’à court terme, la qualité de l’institution et le taux de change réel effectif ont un effet positif sur la balance commerciale. Mais sur le long terme, les deux variables n’ont pas d’impact important sur le solde commercial. La courbe J n’est pas vérifiée pour le cas algérien.

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Published

06/30/2024

Issue

Vol. 9 No. 01 (2024)

Section

Articles

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